Metals generally declined, with SHFE tin down 2.55%, coking coal down over 3%, and polysilicon up over 1% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM, May 30:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, most domestic base metals closed in the red, with SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE zinc all falling within 0.5%. SHFE lead dropped by 0.75%, SHFE tin by 2.55%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.89%.

In addition, alumina increased by 0.24%, lithium carbonate by 0.81%, silicon metal fell by 1.44%, and polysilicon rose by 1.21%.

The ferrous metals series generally declined, with iron ore slightly rising, rebar falling by 0.24%, and HRC by 0.61%. Stainless steel rose by 0.16%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal continued its downward trend from the previous 10 trading sessions, falling by 3.46%, and coke dropped by 1.57%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, most LME metals were trading lower, with LME copper rising by 0.1%, LME aluminum slightly falling, and LME lead, LME zinc, and LME nickel all falling within 0.2%. LME tin dropped by 0.72%.

In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell by 0.67%, and COMEX silver by 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.35%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.29%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe Containerized Freight Index rose by 1.31%, closing at 2,107.6 points.

As of 11:46 on May 30, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 30

Spot and Fundamentals

Tin: As of the midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 251,120 yuan/mt, down 2.55% from the previous settlement price. After opening lower in the morning session, it continued to face pressure, dropping to a low of 250,000 yuan/mt. Open interest increased to 33,400 lots, reflecting active short selling and longs exiting for risk aversion. Rumors of production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar, caused disturbances: Market rumors suggest that the first batch of tin ore from Wa State has received export approval (yet to be confirmed). If true, an increase in output (planned monthly production of 800-1,000 mt) may occur by the end of June. However, strict customs inspections at the China-Myanmar border, delays in the entry of large equipment and personnel, and doubts remain about the actual progress of production resumptions.

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Several Major Financial Policies to be Released at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum]On May 30, the Shanghai Municipal Government held a press conference to introduce details about the 2025 Lujiazui Forum. Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Services Office, revealed at the conference that during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central financial regulatory authorities will release several major financial policies. Li Kexin, Deputy Director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, revealed at the conference that the People's Bank of China is accelerating the preparation of policies to support the development of Shanghai as an international financial center. Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Shanghai Municipal Government have jointly studied and introduced a series of policy measures to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with some policies having been released recently. For example, they jointly issued the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai's International Financial Center" and held a press conference. They supported the establishment of a "Technology Board" in Shanghai's bond market, launched a pilot program for cross-border capital pooling by multinational corporations in Shanghai, and supported Shanghai in issuing the "Several Provisions on Promoting the Development of Free Trade Account Business in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai Municipality," among other measures. "There are still some policies that we are actively accelerating the implementation of," said Li Kexin. Li Kexin also disclosed that PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng will attend the opening ceremony of the forum, deliver an opening speech, and give a keynote address. In addition, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the PBOC and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will also attend and deliver a keynote address. (Cailian Press)

[PBOC Net Injection of 148.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Operations]The PBOC conducted 291.1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. With 142.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan was achieved.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 30 was 7.1848 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 11:46 a.m., the US dollar index rose by 0.1% to 99.46. The US dollar may record its fifth consecutive monthly decline, with markets reluctant to make bold bets ahead of the release of key US inflation reports. According to CCTV News, on May 29 local time, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend a previous ruling by the US Court of International Trade that prohibited the enforcement of an executive order by the Trump administration to impose additional tariffs on multiple countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The market's focus will be on the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report, later on Friday. Economic growth data released on Thursday did little to alleviate market concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. Data released in the US on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said on Thursday that Fed policymakers may still cut interest rates twice this year as they had projected in March, but that rates should remain stable for now to ensure that inflation can reach the Fed's 2% target. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs has constrained the market, prompting many investors to flee US assets in search of alternatives, fearing that erratic policies could challenge the performance of the US market.

Other currencies:

The Japanese yen staged a strong rebound for the second consecutive day, primarily driven by safe-haven buying and robust economic data. The US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) continued to decline in the Asian session on Friday, breaking below the 144.00 integer level and hitting a fresh weekly low. The yen was supported by heightened risk-averse sentiment. Market risk sentiment deteriorated, and stocks weakened after the US Federal Appeals Court reinstated former President Trump's decision to impose broad trade tariffs, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets. Tokyo inflation data strengthened expectations for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike. Japan's core CPI in Tokyo for May rose 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of 3.5% and hitting a more than two-year high. In addition, the super-core inflation, excluding food and energy, also rose to 3.3%, indicating sticky inflation and further increasing the likelihood of another BOJ rate hike this year. A BOJ watcher noted, "Persistently high Tokyo inflation data may force the central bank to raise interest rates again this year to achieve policy normalization." (Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, the following data will be released: US April personal spending MoM, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April PCE price index YoY, preliminary US April wholesale inventories MoM, US May Chicago PMI, final US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Japan May Tokyo CPI YoY, Japan April unemployment rate, Germany April real retail sales MoM, Germany April real retail sales YoY, preliminary Germany May CPI YoY, eurozone April seasonally adjusted money supply M3 YoY, Canada Q1 GDP annualized QoQ, Canada Q1 GDP QoQ - seasonally adjusted, Canada March seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, etc.

In addition, on May 30, the Taiwan Stock Exchange in China was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE in China had no night session trading on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver the opening remarks at the 5th Annual Online Symposium on Macroeconomics and Finance hosted by the Federal Reserve.

Crude oil:

As of 11:46, crude oil futures were all down, with US crude oil falling 0.49% and Brent crude oil declining 0.47%. Oil prices are set to record a weekly decline of over 1% this week, as US tariff policies face uncertainty and the market is also preparing for the possibility of further production increases by OPEC, putting pressure on oil prices.

On Saturday, OPEC will decide on its July production policy, with the market expecting the organization to decide on further production increases. At the same time, OPEC is also trying to ensure that some countries that previously overproduced their quotas, such as Kazakhstan, cut production. On Thursday, Russia's Interfax news agency quoted Alibek Zhamauov, Deputy Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan, as saying that Kazakhstan had informed OPEC that it did not intend to reduce oil production. ""We have already told OPEC that we will not cut production and will produce according to our own capacity levels," said Alibek Zhamauov. OPEC member countries will decide to increase oil production in July when they meet on May 31, but the potential scale of the increase remains unclear. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►Weak consumption and rising inventory have led spot premiums to turn into discounts [[SMM] South China spot copper]

►Poor downstream stocking demand keeps the spot market mediocre [[SMM] North China spot copper]

►Downstream restocking demand on dips is released, and SHFE tin prices remain low [[SMM] Tin Midday Review]

►[[SMM] Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded sharply on May 30, with China urging the US to completely eliminate unilateral tariff hikes

►SiMn plants continue to suffer losses, with SiMn production in May decreasing MoM [[SMM] Analysis]

►[[SMM] Brief Analysis] Fundamentals continue to weaken, with iron ore prices remaining in the doldrums

►China's estimated sodium pyroantimonate production in May will decrease by approximately 21.21% MoM [[SMM] Data]

►China's estimated refined bismuth production in May, as assessed by SMM, will decrease significantly by approximately 16.8% MoM [[SMM] Data]

Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view!